RUMBLINGS – AT 8:02 P.M. ET:  In the post just below we reported on a revolt within the Democratic Party over immigration reform.  But that is small when compared to the larger revolt brewing over Iran.

This morning we noted that a leaked Defense Department document predicts that Iran may well have an ICBM capable of hitting the U.S. by 2015.  Over the weekend we learned, from another leak, that Secretary of Defense Bob Gates had warned the White House in January that this country does not have a strategic plan to deal with a nuclear Iran.

I doubt if these leaks are coincidental.  One senses that a power center has opened up in the Defense Department, at odds with the prevailing wisdom (or ignorance) of the Obama administration that Iran can be managed through "outreach."

An insurrection like this is fairly common in American history.  We've gone through periods when military men are at odds with the administration, or, more, often, with each other.  And the grinding of the parts can be heard throughout Washington.

We had Billy Mitchell's revolt in the 1920s, on behalf of greater development of air power.  Mitchell, although court-martialed for insubordination, was proved correct 

We had the "revolt of the admirals" in the late 1940s, when senior Navy brass balked at plans to reduce this country's dependence on aircraft carriers.  They also were proved correct. 

We had the Army revolt in the 1950s, against a president who'd been a five-star general, over the so-called "new look" in defense, which reduced emphasis on ground forces.  We later learned, to our pain, that dependence on ground forces was still critical in any conflict.

Now there's a new rumbling.  The critics have ready allies in the Republican Party and amidst the conservative punditry. 

One thing to look for in the coming months is the position of Gates within the administration.  It's pretty clear that he has some doubts about Obama's direction.  Besides questions about Iran, it's well known that Gates fought hard for a new generation of nuclear warheads, and was rebuffed.

Will Gates survive?  Will he be forced out and replaced by a compliant airhead like Chuck Hagel?  Or will his hand be strengthened by events.  Obama probably understands that he's seen as a weak president on defense matters.  That image could erode further if he tries to force out a respected defense secretary.  On the other hand, Obama has shown himself to be pretty ruthless, and a semi-skilled player at Chicago-style politics.

Stay tuned.  This could get very interesting, and dangerous.

April 21, 2010